ÐÏà¡±á>þÿ {}þÿÿÿzÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿì¥ÁU ðR¿lbjbjënën2n‰éa‰éaÆA ÿÿÿÿÿÿ·™™™™™ÿÿÿÿ8åT9BOlUUUUUmNoNoNoNoNoNoN$®P¶dS<�“Ni™“N™™UUHüN]]]š™U™UmN]mN]]]UÿÿÿÿÄTÑ'o×ÿÿÿÿ7]YNO0BO] SS S]]Ø2 S™5K$]“N“N]BOÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ SQ_: Risk Analysis Volume 41, Issue 5, May 2021 1. Title: Global Systemic Risk and Resilience for Novel Coronavirus and COVID-19 Authors: Desheng Dash Wu, Jade Mitchell, James H. Lambert Abstract: This Special Issue is dedicated to issues and challenges related to pandemic risk and resilience, with a focus on policy and operations of global systems in the COVID-19 pandemic. The cascading effects of emerging and reemerging infectious diseases to the global economy are a critical interest. Measures to confront the ongoing pandemic are an urgent need. Data analysis at regional and global scales is helping to prioritize response and resilience across locations of high risks. The risk sciences are available for addressing human health and infection risks; the evaluation of risk management strategies and tradeoffs; risk perception as it relates to information processing and receiving risk communication; and tracking system resilience as it relates to various imposed measures. 2. Title: Action Levels for SARS-CoV-2 in Air: Preliminary Approach Authors: Charles N. Haas Abstract: Quantitative microbial risk assessment has been used to develop criteria for exposure to many microorganisms. In this article, the dose–response curve for Coronavirus 229E is used to develop preliminary risk-based exposure criteria for SARS-CoV-2 via the respiratory portals of entry. 3. Title: Exploring Risks of Human Challenge Trials for COVID-19 Authors: David Manheim Ph.D., Witold Wi)cek Ph.D., Virginia Schmit Ph.D., Josh Morrison, 1Day Sooner Research Team Abstract: Human challenge trials (HCTs) are a potential method to accelerate development of vaccines and therapeutics. However, HCTs for COVID-19 pose ethical and practical challenges, in part due to the unclear and developing risks. In this article, we introduce an interactive model for exploring some risks of a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-COV-2) dosing study, a prerequisite for any COVID-19 challenge trials. The risk estimates we use are based on a Bayesian evidence synthesis model which can incorporate new data on infection fatality risks (IFRs) to patients, and infer rates of hospitalization. The model estimates individual risk, which we then extrapolate to overall mortality and hospitalization risk in a dosing study. We provide a web tool to explore risk under different study designs. Based on the Bayesian model, IFR for someone between 20 and 30 years of age is 15.1 in 100,000, with a 95% uncertainty interval from 11.8 to 19.2, while risk of hospitalization is 130 per 100,000 (100–160). However, risk will be reduced in an HCT via screening for comorbidities, selecting lower-risk population, and providing treatment. Accounting for this with stronger assumptions, we project the fatality risk to be as low as 2.5 per 100,000 (1.6–3.9) and the hospitalization risk to be 22.0 per 100,000 (14.0–33.7). We therefore find a 50-person dosing trial has a 99.74% (99.8–99.9%) chance of no fatalities, and a 98.9% (98.3–99.3%) probability of no cases requiring hospitalization. 4. Title: On Ambiguity Reduction and the Role of Decision Analysis during the Pandemic Authors: David C. Rode, Paul S. Fischbeck Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has created a multitude of decision problems for a variety of fields. Questions from the seriousness and breadth of the problem to the effectiveness of proposed mitigation measures have been raised. We assert that the decision sciences have a crucial role to play here, as the questions requiring answers involve complex decision making under both uncertainty and ambiguity. The collection, processing, and analysis of data is critical in providing a useful response—especially as information of fundamental importance to such decision making (base rates and transmission rates) is lacking. We propose that scarce testing resources should be diverted away from confirmatory analysis of symptomatic people, as laboratory diagnosis appears to have little decision value in treatment choice over clinical diagnosis in patients presenting with symptoms. In contrast, the exploratory use of testing resources to reduce ambiguity in estimates of the base rate of infection appears to have significant value and great practical import for public policy purposes. As these stances may be at odds with triage practices among medical practitioners, they highlight the important role the decision analyst can play in responding to the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic. 5. Title: Reinventing Cloth Masks in the Face of Pandemics Authors: Stephen Salter Abstract: Because asymptomatic carriers of COVID-19 produce respiratory droplets that can remain suspended in air for several hours, social distancing may not be a reliable physical barrier to transmission. During the COVID-19 pandemic, however, some governments were reluctant to mandate public mask use out of concern this would worsen shortages of respirators for healthcare workers. Cloth masks with a filtering effectiveness of 70–90% can be made from widely available materials, and are a better option than respirators for the public. Countries could rapidly implement Effective Fiber Mask Programs (EFMPs) to use local resources to mass produce effective and affordable cloth masks, and to engage the public in their correct use. EFMPs could be a cost-effective measure to ease isolation while limiting new infections during pandemics. EFMPs could also protect healthcare workers by increasing the supply of respirators for their use, reducing their risk of acquiring the illness from their communities, and by reducing the number of patients they must treat. 6. Title: Quantification and Comparison of Risks Associated with Wastewater Use in Spray Irrigation Authors: Jameson Mori, Sital Uprety, Yuqing Mao, Sotiria Koloutsou-Vakakis, Thanh H Nguyen, Rebecca L. Smith Abstract: In the U.S., spray irrigation is the most common method used in agriculture and supplementing with animal wastewater has the potential to reduce water demands. However, this could expose individuals to respiratory pathogens such as Legionella pneumophila and nontuberculosis Mycobacteria (NTM). Disinfection with methods like anaerobic digestion is an option but can increase concentrations of cytotoxic ammonia (personal communication). Our study aimed to model the annual risks of infection from these bacterial pathogens and the air concentrations of ammonia and determine if anaerobically digesting this wastewater is a safe option. Air dispersion modeling, conducted in AERMOD, generated air concentrations of water during the irrigation season (May–September) for the years 2013–2018. These values fed into the quantitative microbial risk assessments for the bacteria and allowed calculation of ammonia air concentrations. The outputs of these models were compared to the safety thresholds of 10"4 infections/year and 0.5 mg/m3, respectively, to determine their potential for negative health outcomes. It was determined that infection from NTM was not a concern for individuals near active spray irrigators, but that infection with L. pneumophila could be a concern, with a maximum predicted annual risk of infection of 3.5 × 10"3 infections/year and 25.2% of parameter combinations exceeding the established threshold. Ammonia posed a minor risk, with 1.5% of parameter combinations surpassing the risk threshold of 0.5 mg/m3. These findings suggest that animal wastewater should be anaerobically digested prior to use in irrigation to remove harmful pathogens. 7. Title: Do the Benefits of COVID-19 Policies Exceed the Costs? Exploring Uncertainties in the Age–VSL Relationship Authors: Lisa A. Robinson, Ryan Sullivan, Jason F. Shogren Abstract: Numerous analyses of the benefits and costs of COVID-19 policies have been completed quickly as the crisis has unfolded. The results often largely depend on the approach used to value mortality risk reductions, typically expressed as the value per statistical life (VSL). Many analyses rely on a population-average VSL estimate; some adjust VSL for life expectancy at the age of death. We explore the implications of theory and empirical studies, which suggest that the relationship between age and VSL is uncertain. We compare the effects of three approaches: (1) an invariant population-average VSL; (2) a constant value per statistical life-year (VSLY); and (3) a VSL that follows an inverse-U pattern, peaking in middle age. We find that when applied to the U.S. age distribution of COVID-19 deaths, these approaches result in average VSL estimates of $10.63 million, $4.47 million, and $8.31 million. We explore the extent to which applying these estimates alters the conclusions of frequently cited analyses of social distancing, finding that they significantly affect the findings. However, these analyses do not address other characteristics of COVID-19 deaths that may increase or decrease the VSL estimates. Examples include the health status and income level of those affected, the size of the risk change, and the extent to which the risk is dreaded, uncertain, involuntarily incurred, and outside of one's control. The effects of these characteristics and their correlation with age are uncertain; it is unclear whether they amplify or diminish the effects of age on VSL. 8. Title: Fast and Frugal: Information Processing Related to The Coronavirus Pandemic Authors: Jody Chin Sing Wong, Janet Zheng Yang, Zhuling Liu, David Lee, Zhiying Yue Abstract: This research focuses on three factors that influence how individuals cognitively process information related to the coronavirus outbreak. Guided by dual-process theories of information processing, we establish how the two different information processing modes (system 1: heuristic processing; system 2: systematic processing) are influenced by individuals’ responsibility attribution, discrete negative emotions, and risk perception. In an experiment, participants were exposed to a news article that either blames China (n = 445) or does not blame China (n = 498) for the pandemic. Results reveal that exposure to the responsibility attribution frame led individuals to engage in more heuristic processing, but it did not influence systematic processing. Discrete negative emotions and risk perception mediated the relationship between responsibility attribution and information processing. The indirect relationships suggest a more intricate process underlying heuristic processing and systematic processing. In particular, information processing styles seem to be determined by social judgment surrounding the coronavirus pandemic. 9. Title: The Impact of Trust and Risk Perception on the Acceptance of Measures to Reduce COVID-19 Cases Authors: Michael Siegrist, Larissa Luchsinger, Angela Bearth Abstract: The SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 has had a large impact on the lives of many people worldwide. At the peak of confirmed COVID-19 cases during the first wave in Switzerland (March–April 2020), we conducted a survey in the German-speaking part of the country (N = 1,585). The results suggest that the implemented measures are accepted. The survey participants are more concerned that other family members could catch the virus compared with themselves, and they are worried about its economic impact. The results suggest that how trust is measured is crucial because general trust and social trust have opposite effects on the participants’ risk perceptions. People with high general trust perceive less risks associated with COVID-19 compared with people who have low general trust, and people with high social trust perceive more risks compared with people who have low social trust. The results further indicate that perceived risks are important drivers for the acceptance of the government's implemented measures to control COVID-19 and for more precautionary behavior (i.e., contact with fewer people and more hygienic behavior). Theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed. 10. Title: Analyzing the Risk to COVID-19 Infection using Remote Sensing and GIS Authors: Shruti Kanga, Gowhar Meraj, Sudhanshu, Majid Farooq, M. S. Nathawat, Suraj Kumar Singh Abstract: Globally, the COVID-19 pandemic has become a threat to humans and to the socioeconomic systems they have developed since the industrial revolution. Hence, governments and stakeholders call for strategies to help restore normalcy while dealing with this pandemic effectively. Since till now, the disease is yet to have a cure; therefore, only risk-based decision making can help governments achieve a sustainable solution in the long term. To help the decisionmakers explore viable actions, we propose a risk-based assessment framework for analyzing COVID-19 risk to areas, using integrated hazard and vulnerability components associated with this pandemic for effective risk mitigation. The study is carried on a region administrated by Jaipur municipal corporation (JMC), India. Based on the current understanding of this disease, we hypothesized different COVID-19 risk indices (C19Ri) of the wards of JMC such as proximity to hotspots, total population, population density, availability of clean water, and associated land use/land cover, are related with COVID-19 contagion and calculated them in a GIS-based multicriteria risk reduction method. The results showed disparateness in COVID-19 risk areas with a higher risk in north-eastern and south-eastern zone wards within the boundary of JMC. We proposed prioritizing wards under higher risk zones for intelligent decision making regarding COVID-19 risk reduction through appropriate management of resources-related policy consequences. This study aims to serve as a baseline study to be replicated in other parts of the country or world to eradicate the threat of COVID-19 effectively. 11. Title: A Novel Causal Risk-Based Decision-Making Methodology: The Case of Coronavirus Authors: Stavros K. Stavroglou, Bilal M. Ayyub, Vasileios Kallinterakis, Athanasios A. Pantelous, H. Eugene Stanley Abstract: Either in the form of nature's wrath or a pandemic, catastrophes cause major destructions in societies, thus requiring policy and decisionmakers to take urgent action by evaluating a host of interdependent parameters, and possible scenarios. The primary purpose of this article is to propose a novel risk-based, decision-making methodology capable of unveiling causal relationships between pairs of variables. Motivated by the ongoing global emergency of the coronavirus pandemic, the article elaborates on this powerful quantitative framework drawing on data from the United States at the county level aiming at assisting policy and decision makers in taking timely action amid this emergency. This methodology offers a basis for identifying potential scenarios and consequences of the ongoing 2020 pandemic by drawing on weather variables to examine the causal impact of changing weather on the trend of daily coronavirus cases. 12. Title: Challenges Associated with the Response to the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Pandemic in Africa—An African Diaspora Perspective Authors: Andre M. N. Renzaho Abstract: The 2014–2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa extracted huge health, social, and economic costs. How can lessons learnt during the 2014–2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa help to mitigate the likelihood of a long-term devastating effect of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak on the African continent? Despite COVID-19 spreading quickly across the globe after being first reported in Wuhan, China on December 31, 2019, African countries remained relatively unaffected until the second week of March 2020. The majority of Africa countries have been at low to moderate risk. However, they have experienced many sociocultural, economic, political, and structural challenges. 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