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World Development Volume 90, Issue 2, February 2017 1. Title: Reforming Performance-Based Aid Allocation Practice Authors: Mark McGillivray, Thi Kim Cuong Pham. Abstract: Performance-based aid allocation systems are used by a number of multilateral agencies to allocate aid among developing countries. A number of bilateral agencies also allocate aid on the basis of the performance of recipients, albeit in a less systematic way than these multilateral agencies. This paper points to a number of fundamental problems associated with performance-based aid allocation systems, including a problematic balancing of need and performance criteria, being reductionist with respect to the drivers of effective aid and not being sufficiently nuanced with respect to performance by ignoring a lack of human capital and economic vulnerability in recipient countries. Together with providing a theoretical framework that articulates these issues, this paper introduces and outlines the papers that follow in this Special Section. 2. Title: Does Aid Availability Affect Effectiveness in Reducing Poverty? A Review Article Authors: François Bourguignon, Jean-Philippe Platteau. Abstract: This paper addresses the impact of aid supply on aid effectiveness. First, we review theoretical literature that deals with the problem of governance in donor–recipient relationships and are susceptible of highlighting effects of aggregate aid availability. Second, we provide a conceptual framework that explicitly incorporates a trade-off between considerations of needs and governance. We examine the impact of aid supply on the manner in which a donor agency allocates the available money between countries differing in terms of both needs and domestic governance. The central conclusion is that a donor’s utility function that embodies the need-governance trade-off and the associated optimization mechanism yield a meaningful rule to guide inter-country allocation of aid resources. 3. Title: Performance Assessment, Vulnerability, Human Capital, and the Allocation of Aid among Developing Countries Authors: Patrick Guillaumont, Mark McGillivray, Laurent Wagner. Abstract: Developing country performance with respect to economic policies and institutional behavior is a common criterion for the allocation of aid among recipient countries. This paper examines how performance is used, arguing that performance is too narrowly defined. A more appropriate definition is one that controls for the economic vulnerability and human capital of developing countries. Econometric analysis of cross-section and panel data is presented that supports this contention. The paper also contends that performance and exogenous economic shocks are likely to be pro-cyclical. This implies a double punishment when aid is allocated according to performance. Evidence of such punishment is also provided. The paper concludes by arguing that economic vulnerability and human capital variables should augment performance measures in aid allocation decision-making 4. Title: How to Take into Account Vulnerability in Aid Allocation Criteria and Lack of Human Capital as Well: Improving the Performance Based Allocation Authors: Patrick Guillaumont, Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney, Laurent Wagner. Abstract: This paper considers why and how the Performance Based Allocation (PBA) used in multilateral development banks and in particular at IDA, could be improved by taking the structural handicaps of eligible countries into account. The PBA relies on a debatable definition of performance. It does not meet the equity concern raised by the existence of structural handicaps to growth. It neglects the lessons of the aid effectiveness literature. Finally, it suffers from some opacity. We show how it is possible to increase the share of specific groups of countries, such as Sub-Saharan Africa or post-conflict states, in a transparent manner. 5. Title: Women, Weather, and Woes: The Triangular Dynamics of Female-Headed Households, Economic Vulnerability, and Climate Variability in South Africa Authors: Martin Flatø, Raya Muttarak, André Pelser. Abstract: Existing gender inequality is believed to be heightened as a result of weather events and climate-related disasters that are likely to become more common in the future. We show that an already marginalized group—female-headed households in South Africa—is differentially affected by relatively modest levels of variation in rainfall, which households experience on a year-to-year basis. Data from three waves of the National Income Dynamics Survey in South Africa allow us to follow incomes of 4,162 households from 2006 to 2012. By observing how household income is affected by variation in rainfall relative to what is normally experienced during the rainy season in each district, our study employs a series of naturally occurring experiments that allow us to identify causal effects. We find that households where a single head can be identified based on residency or work status are more vulnerable to climate variability than households headed by two adults. Single male-headed households are more vulnerable because of lower initial earnings and, to a lesser extent, other household characteristics that contribute to economic disadvantages. However, this can only explain some of the differential vulnerability of female-headed households. This suggests that there are traits specific to female-headed households, such as limited access to protective social networks or other coping strategies, which makes this an important dimension of marginalization to consider for further research and policy in South Africa and other national contexts. Households headed by widows, never-married women, and women with a non-resident spouse (e.g., “left-behind” migrant households) are particularly vulnerable. We find vulnerable households only in districts where rainfall has a large effect on agricultural yields, and female-headed households remain vulnerable when accounting for dynamic impacts of rainfall on income. 6. Title: Positioning Missionaries in Development Studies, Policy, and Practice Authors: Jonathan D. Smith Abstract: This article diagnoses major causes of the uncomfortable relationship between missionaries and development scholars and practitioners, and it proposes new ways to clarify the relationship through shared reflection on sacred influences that shape global development. In the past fifteen years the turn to religion in development studies has altered how development scholars and practitioners perceive religious actors, opening up possibilities for renewed partnership. Yet the turn to religion in development has mostly disregarded missionaries. This oversight is partly due to the complicated historical relationship between Western Christian missionaries and development workers. Although missionaries have long participated in the work of development, present-day missionaries remain associated with coercive proselytization, or they are overlooked in literature on religion and development. 7. Title: Can Agricultural Traders be Trusted? Evidence from Coffee in Ethiopia Authors: Bart Minten, Thomas Assefa, Kalle Hirvonen. Abstract: Traditional food marketing systems in developing countries are often not trusted. In consequence, policy makers frequently try to regulate them and modern marketing arrangements are increasingly emerging to address some of their presumed deficiencies. However, it is unclear how trustworthy these markets actually are. The purpose of this study is to look at these issues in the case of coffee marketing in Ethiopia. Coffee markets in Ethiopia present an interesting case study due to the high price and quality differentiation linked to a number of both easily and not so easily observable characteristics. Moreover, modern marketing practices, such as modern retail, branding and packaging, are becoming increasingly common in Ethiopia’s urban coffee markets. When we define and examine trustworthiness in the Addis Ababa coffee market as a function of weights and quality, we find that traditional traders are relatively trustworthy on observable quality characteristics and weights. However, there is a consistent pattern of over-representation of not so easily verifiable quality characteristics. We further find that modern marketing outlets or formats, including modern domestic retail and branded packaged products, deliver higher quality at a higher price, but are not more trustworthy than traditional marketing arrangements in terms of these dimensions of trade transactions. 8. Title: Taxing the unobservable: The impact of the shadow economy on inflation and taxation Authors: Ummad Mazhar, Pierre-Guillaume Méon. Abstract: Because the shadow economy cannot be taxed, it erodes the tax base and reduces tax revenues, forcing governments to resort to other ways to finance their expenditures. Accordingly, a larger shadow economy should give governments an incentive to shift revenue sources from taxes to inflation, in line with the public finance motive of inflation. In this paper, we recall that point in a simple canonical model, then empirically test it in a sample of up to 153 developed and developing countries over the 1999–2007 period. In line with the model’s prediction, we indeed observe a positive relation between inflation and the size of the shadow economy, and a negative relation between the tax burden and the size of the shadow economy. We find that both relations are conditional on central bank independence and on the exchange rate regime, implying that it is the strongest in institutional set-ups that constrain monetary policy the least. Both relations are present in the sub-sample of developed countries as well as the sub-sample of developing countries. Both relations survive several robustness checks, using various sets of control variables including the stock of debt, controlling for endogeneity, using alternative estimates of the shadow economy, and estimating the two relations as a system of equations. 9. Title: The Impact of Foreign Aid Allocation on Access to Social Services in sub-Saharan Africa: The Case of Water and Sanitation Authors: Léonce Ndikumana, Lynda Pickbourn. Abstract: The Sustainable Development target of ensuring access to water and sanitation for all by 2030 has far-reaching implications for the achievement of the other SDGs. However, achieving this target remains a major challenge for sub-Saharan Africa, and the ability of governments in the region to expand access is constrained by limited financial resources. This paper investigates whether targeting foreign aid to the water and sanitation sector can help achieve the goal of expanding access to water and sanitation services in sub-Saharan Africa. The analysis is based on panel data estimation techniques controlling for country-specific effects and potential endogeneity of regressors. The econometric results suggest that increased aid targeted to the supply of water and sanitation is associated with increased access to these services, although the relationship is non-linear. The evidence in this study makes an important contribution to the scholarly debate on aid effectiveness. It also has important practical implications for aid policy: specifically, it suggests that in addition to scaling up aid disbursements to sub-Saharan African countries, donors need to increase aid allocation to water and sanitation as well as other areas where the region lags behind. There is also a need to identify structural constraints that may limit access to water and sanitation, and utilize foreign aid so as to alleviate these constraints. 10. Title: How Does Corruption Affect Public Debt? An Empirical Analysis Authors: Arusha Cooray, Ratbek Dzhumashev, Friedrich Schneider. Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between corruption, the shadow economy, and public debt. It additionally examines whether the shadow economy increases the adverse effects of corruption on public debt. The model is empirically tested for 126 countries over 1996–2012. Using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Fixed effects, system generalized method of moments (GMM) and instrumental variable estimation, and two measures of corruption—the Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index and the Kaufmann et al. Corruption Index—results confirm that increased corruption and a larger shadow economy lead to an increase in public debt. Results additionally indicate that the shadow economy magnifies the effect of corruption on public debt suggesting that they act as complements. Results also suggest that a larger shadow economy reduces tax revenues and thus increases public debt, similarly, higher government expenditure enhances the effects of corruption on government debt. Hence reducing corruption should be a primary policy goal of governments. Given the complementarity detected between corruption and the shadow economy, reducing corruption would also lead to a fall in the size of the shadow economy and public debt. Reducing corruption will also minimize the adverse effects of corruption on government debt through government expenditure. 11. Title: How the New International Goal for Child Mortality is Unfair to Sub-Saharan Africa (Again) Authors: Simon Lange, Stephan Klasen. Abstract: The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) include level-end goals for both under-five and neonatal mortality to be obtained by 2030: no more than 25 and 12 deaths per 1,000 births, respectively. Recent accelerations in the rate of reduction in under-five mortality have been cited as a cause for optimism. In this paper, we show that changes in mortality rates are subject to mean reversion. Hence, high rates observed recently for Sub-Saharan Africa make for an overly optimistic estimate of future reductions. Taking this into account in projecting mortality rates until 2030, we find that only very few countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are likely to attain the new targets while a majority of countries elsewhere are likely to attain the target or have done so already. We also show that while MDG4 has been rightly criticized as ‘unfair’ to Sub-Saharan Africa in the past, a relative target may have been more appropriate today and would be relevant for all countries. We also offer a discussion of likely challenges the region faces in making further inroads against preventable deaths. 12. Title: Looking at Pro-Poor Growth from an Agricultural Perspective Authors: Stephan Klasen, Malte Reimers. Abstract: Pro-poor growth has been identified as one of the most promising pathways to accelerate poverty reduction in developing countries. The diagnostic pro-poor growth toolbox has so far focused on the income dimension as well as key non-income achievements in education and health. This article contributes to the literature by expanding the toolbox with several new measures that take into account the extraordinary importance of agricultural productivity for poverty reduction in developing countries. We distinguish between land productivity and labor productivity and find that the poor identified by low incomes, poor education outcomes, low land productivity and low labor productivity overlap only to a small degree, suggesting that analyses of pro-poor growth from these different perspectives are complementary. The toolbox is then applied to three comparable household surveys from Rwanda (EICV data for the years 1999–2001, 2005–06, and 2010–11), a country that has experienced impressive economic growth since the genocide in the mid-1990s and that has undertaken considerable efforts to increase agricultural productivity and improve the population’s access to social services over the first decade of the 2000s. Our application shows that the enormous progress made in the income, education, and health dimension of well-being has been pro-poor according to most definitions of the concept. The new tools reveal that the land productivity-poor experienced pro-poor growth in the relative (and absolute) sense while the labor productivity-poor increased their labor productivity relatively (but not absolutely) faster than the labor productivity-rich even though the former dispose of considerably lower education levels. 13. Title: Husband and Wife Perspectives on Farm Household Decision-making Authority and Evidence on Intra-household Accord in Rural Tanzania Authors: C. Leigh Anderson, Travis W. Reynolds, Mary Kay Gugerty. Abstract: We use OLS and logistic regression to investigate variation in husband and wife perspectives on the division of authority over agriculture-related decisions within households in rural Tanzania. Using original data from husbands and wives (interviewed separately) in 1,851 Tanzanian households, the analysis examines differences in the wife’s authority over 13 household and farming decisions. The study finds that the level of decision-making authority allocated to wives by their husbands, and the authority allocated by wives to themselves, both vary significantly across households. In addition to commonly considered assets such as women’s age and education, in rural agricultural households women’s health and labor activities also appear to matter for perceptions of authority. We also find husbands and wives interviewed separately frequently disagree with each other over who holds authority over key farming, family, and livelihood decisions. Further, the results of OLS and logistic regression suggest that even after controlling for various individual, household, and regional characteristics, husband and wife claims to decision-making authority continue to vary systematically by decision—suggesting that decision characteristics themselves also matter. The absence of spousal agreement over the allocation of authority (i.e., a lack of “intra-household accord”) over different farm and household decisions is problematic for interventions seeking to use survey data to develop and inform strategies for reducing gender inequalities or empowering women in rural agricultural households. Findings provide policy and program insights into when studies interviewing only a single spouse or considering only a single decision may inaccurately characterize intra-household decision-making dynamics. 14. Title: Water, Law, and Development in Chile/California Cooperation, 1960–70s Authors: Carl Bauer, Luis Catalán. Abstract: During 1963–-78 the governments and the top universities of Chile and California undertook three programs of binational development assistance and cooperation. The programs built on a long historical relationship between the two regions, marked by their striking similarities in physical geography and natural resources, despite being 1,000s of miles apart on opposite sides of the Equator. The first program was for technical development assistance to Chile in the framework of the Alliance for Progress, and involved the three governments of Chile, California, and the United States. Water resources and river basin development planning were a primary emphasis, and led to building Chile’s largest dual-purpose reservoir (Colbún). The second program was for graduate-level academic exchange and involved the two leading public university systems, the University of Chile and the University of California. This comprehensive program was funded for more than a decade by the Ford Foundation, with agriculture, natural sciences, and engineering the dominant fields. The third program was a separate effort to reform Chilean legal education, led by Stanford Law School and funded by the Ford Foundation. This Chile Law Program was a leading international example of the “law and development” movement in the 1960s, which overlapped closely with the early years of the “law and society” movement in the U.S. Both university and law school programs ended after the Chilean military coup in 1973. What were the impacts of these programs on water, law, and society in both Chile and California? What lessons can we learn today from those historical experiences? We answer these questions with an historical overview and synthesis of diverse documents and evidence. In focusing on water, law, and society, we aim to contribute to the interdisciplinary synthesis of different fields of development studies. 15. Title: Imagined Statehood: Wartime Rebel Governance and Post-war Subnational Identity in Sri Lanka Authors: Yuichi Kubota Abstract: This paper investigates the link between the wartime governance of rebel groups and post-civil war civilian identity. Focusing on Sri Lanka, it explores why and how individuals’ wartime experience continues to influence their affinity to subnational entities in post-war society. Analyzing original survey data with Structural Equation Modeling, the results show that civilians’ consciousness of rebel statehood has a positive effect on the formation of a subnational identity in the aftermath of civil war. The legacy of rebel governance persists and retains an impact on civilian identity in the post-war context. The findings suggest that those charged with the task of post-war reconstruction need to take into account the long-lasting influence of rebel statehood in order to successfully rebuild integrated communities. A post-war regime cannot simply implant a new national identity if it dismisses this influence because post-war identity is a consequence of civilians’ experience of governance by non-governmental but de facto state actors. 16. Title: Unpacking the Effect of Decentralized Governance on Routine Violence: Lessons from Indonesia Authors: Jan H. Pierskalla, Audrey Sacks. Abstract: We study the effect of decentralization on routine violence in Indonesia. We unpack decentralization along multiple dimensions and consider the individual effects of local elections, the creation of new administrative units, fiscal transfers, and local public service delivery. We use comprehensive data from Indonesia’s National Violence Monitoring System (NVMS), a new dataset that records the incidence and impact of violence in Indonesia. We use these data to examine the relationship between the different dimensions of decentralization and different types of local violence in Indonesian districts during 2001–10. Our analyses suggest that there is a positive association between local service delivery and at least some forms of violence. We argue that the positive effect of service delivery on violence is due to newly generated distributive conflicts among local ethnic groups around the control over and access to services. By comparison, district splitting and the introduction of direct elections of district heads are negatively associated with some forms of violence. There is little evidence that fiscal transfers, in general, mitigate conflict. 17. Title: Market Access, Well-being, and Nutrition: Evidence from Ethiopia Authors: David Stifel, Bart Minten. Abstract: We use a unique data source from a rural area in northwestern Ethiopia to analyze the relationship between household/individual well-being, nutrition, and market access. We find that households residing in relatively more remote areas consume substantially less than households nearer to the market, they are more food insecure, and their school enrollment rates are lower. Although their diets are also less diverse, we find no significant differences in mother and child anthropometric measures. Part of the differences in well-being that we do observe can be attributed to lower household agricultural production in remote areas. Nonetheless agricultural production differences alone do not account for all the differences in household consumption levels for remote households. An additional contributing factor is the terms of trade for remote households that negatively affect both the size of the agricultural surplus that these households market and the quantity of food items that they purchase. Reducing transaction costs for remote households and facilitating migration could help equalize well-being among more or less favored locations. 18. Title: Did FDI Really Cause Chinese Economic Growth? A Meta-Analysis Authors: Philip Gunby, Yinghua Jin, W. Robert Reed. Abstract: Foreign direct investment (FDI) has been linked to economic growth in a number of countries. Productivity spillovers at the firm level have been identified as a key element in the process by which FDI stimulates economic growth. Moreover, there is evidence of FDI-related productivity spillovers in China. Whether these spillovers have been of sufficient size to affect growth at the aggregate level, however, is an empirical question. We apply meta-analysis to the corresponding empirical literature to find an answer. Our main finding is that the effect of FDI on Chinese economic growth is much smaller than one would expect from a naïve aggregation of existing estimates. Publication bias and a profusion of estimates based on less preferred study and sample characteristics have served to inflate observed estimates. Once these effects are accounted for, the estimated effect of FDI on Chinese economic growth is reduced to statistical insignificance. This suggests that the cause(s) of the Chinese “economic miracle” likely lie elsewhere. 19. Title: What Makes Locals Protesters? A Discursive Analysis of Two Cases in Gold-mining Industry in Turkey Authors: Hayriye Özen, ^
ükrü Özen. Abstract: This study addresses the question why a struggle emerges between local communities and mining MNCs. Many studies in the extant literature tend to explain the emergence of these struggles by relying on some  objective conditions” such as the characteristics of the industry, strategies of companies, features of community, and governmental policies. Drawing on Foucauldian and Laclauian insights, we argue that the analysis of such struggles should rather focus on meaning-making processes, through which each party to a struggle articulates surrounding conditions in particular ways, thereby giving shape to new meanings and identities. By comparatively examining Efemçukuru and Çöpler goldmine cases from Turkey, in which a struggle emerges in the former but not in the latter in spite of similar conditions, we demonstrate that the emergence of struggles is mainly due to the construction of rival discourses that construct the issues of mining, environment, and development in highly different ways. We argue that already-prevalent conditions play a role in the emergence of struggles to the extent that they are employed, framed, and reframed in the rival anti-mining and pro-mining discourses. The argument goes further that the availability of anti-mining discourse when the local meaning systems are dislocated by the arrival of MNCs, as well as its popular appeal at the local level are critical in the emergence of local mobilizations against gold-mining. Finally, emphasis is put on the relational nature of struggle processes, where anti-mining and pro-mining discourses are mutually constituted and reconstituted through a constant reformulation of hegemonic strategies. 20. Title: Colonial Revenue Extraction and Modern Day Government Quality in the British Empire Authors: Rasmus Broms Abstract: The relationship between the extent of government revenue a government collects, primarily in the form of taxation, and its overall quality has increasingly been identified as a key factor for successful state building, good institutions, and—by extension—general development. Initially deriving from historical research on Western Europe, this process is expected to unfold slowly over time. This study tests the claim that more extensive revenue collection has long-lasting and positive consequences for government quality in a developmental setting. Using fiscal records from British colonies, results from cross-colony/country regression analyses reveal that higher colonial income-adjusted revenue levels during the early twentieth century can be linked to higher government quality today. This relationship is substantial and robust to several specifications of both colonial revenue and modern day government quality, and remains significant under control for a range of rivaling explanations. The results support the notion that the current institutional success of former colonies can be traced back to the extent of historical revenue extraction. 21. Title: New Estimates on Educational Attainment Using a Continuous Approach (1970–2010) Authors: Vanesa Jordá, José M. Alonso. Abstract: In this paper we introduce a new set of estimates on educational attainment and inequality measures of education for 142 countries over the period 1970–2010. Most of the previous attempts to measure educational attainment have treated education as a categorical variable, whose mean is computed as a weighted average of the official duration of each cycle and attainment rates, thus omitting differences in educational achievement within levels of education. This aggregation into different groups may result in a loss of information, introducing, therefore, a potential source of measurement error. We explore here a more nuanced alternative to estimate educational attainment, which considers the continuous nature of education. This “continuous approach” allows us to impose more plausible assumptions about the distribution of years of schooling within each level of education, and to take into account the right censoring of the data in the estimation, thus leading to more accurate estimates of educational attainment and education inequality. These improved estimates may help to better understand the role of education on different aspects of development. 22. Title: Large-Scale Agricultural Investments and Smallholder Welfare: A Comparison of Wage Labor and Outgrower Channels in Tanzania Authors: Raoul T. Herrmann Abstract: This article evaluates household welfare effects of large-scale agricultural investments in Tanzania, one of the main recipients of such investments in Africa. Specifically, the article compares households participating in sugar and rice investments through outgrower schemes or as agro-industry workers with non-participants in terms of household income and income poverty. Building on primary household data, it is one of the first studies to empirically analyze ex-post impacts of large-scale agricultural investments in Africa. The analysis draws on cross-section survey data of 516 households collected in Kilombero District, a priority cluster for the Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania (SAGCOT). The results show overall positive household welfare differences between participants of the investments and the respective counterfactual. However, there are large differences between arrangements and subsectors. Estimated effects for outgrowers are largest, yet for land-rich outgrowers more so than for land-poor. Effects for agro-industry workers in the sugar investment are significantly larger than for those in the rice investment, though in both investments land-poor workers seem to benefit. Hence, the study results suggest potential benefits of outgrower schemes and potentials of agro-industry wage employment for the land-poor to escape extreme poverty. Yet, it also stresses particularly the need to address the constraints of land-poor outgrowers. Qualitative interviews, for example, pointed to growing risks for land-poor outgrowers in the context of rising elite capture by larger outgrowers. 23. Title: Female-Headed Households and Living Conditions in Latin America Authors: Chia Liu, Albert Esteve, Rocío Treviño. Abstract: This study investigates the rise in female headship in Latin America and its relationship with changing living arrangements and household living conditions. Understanding the family situation of the household head is essential in assessing living conditions in the region of Latin America. We answer two main questions: first, how have the increase of union instability influenced trends in female headship? Second, are female-headed households in poorer living conditions than male-headed households? We use Integrated Public Use Microdata Series-International (IPUMS-I) census microdata for 14 Latin American countries, focusing on women aged 35 and 44 from 1970 to the present day. Our study finds that in most countries, women are increasingly likely to head households regardless of union status. The union status, more so than the sex of the household head, is more telling of the living conditions of the household. Female householders are, in fact, less likely to reside in materially poor households after controlling for union status (e.g., single parenthood, divorce, cohabitation) in many countries. Our results highlight the nuance of family situations and female empowerment leading to headship. Policy makers should review differences in rights and entitlement between marital and non-marital couples, upward mobility and opportunities for women, and develop strategies that alleviate single earner households. 24. Title: Explaining Aid Project and Program Success: Findings from Asian Development Bank Interventions Authors: Simon Feeny, Vu Vuong. Abstract: This paper contributes to the aid effectiveness literature by examining the determinants of aid project and program success. Both macro (country level) and micro (project level) determinants are considered. The paper employs a variety of econometric techniques to examine evaluation data for countries in the Asia-Pacific from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) for period 1970–2010. At the macro level, the rate of per capita income growth is positively associated with aid project and program success. Aid interventions are found to have a lower probability of success in the Pacific and, surprisingly, in countries with higher levels of democracy. There is little association between project and program ratings and the level of governance. At the micro level, projects are more likely to be successful than programs, as are larger aid interventions. Interventions which received less funding than anticipated, possibly due to capacity constraints, are found to have a lower probability of success. Despite these statistically significant findings, both macro and micro variables contribute very little to the explanatory power of models explaining the variation in project and program outcomes. The paper concludes that the ADB should reconsider its performance based aid allocation model. 25. Title: The Unintended Long-Term Consequences of Mao’s Mass Send-Down Movement: Marriage, Social Network, and Happiness Authors: Shun Wang, Weina Zhou. Abstract: This paper uses the China General Social Survey (CGSS) 2003 to evaluate the long-term consequences of a forced migration, the state’s “send-down” movement (shang shan xia xiang, or up to the mountains, down to the villages) during the Chinese Cultural Revolution, on individuals’ nonmaterial well-being. The send-down program resettled over 16 million urban youths to the countryside to carry out hard manual labor over the years 1968–78. Most of them were allowed to return to urban areas when the Cultural Revolution ended. To estimate the long-term impacts of the send-down experience, we compare the outcomes of individuals with send-down experience to those of individuals without send-down experience but having similar characteristics and family backgrounds during the send-down period. We conduct primarily OLS estimates with a careful sample selection. We find that those who had the send-down experience have worse marriage outcomes, lower-quality social networks, and a lower level of happiness than non-send-downs. The negative effects of the forced migration are robust against regression methods and various model specifications. Our study adds to the growing literature in economics that seeks to evaluate the impact of forced migration. 26. Title: Estimating the Causal Effect of Fertility on Women’s Employment in Africa Using Twins Authors: Eelke de Jong, Jeroen Smits, Abiba Longwe. Abstract: Women’s employment is considered essential for gender equality and female empowerment, as well as for the living standard, dependency burden, and saving patterns of households in poor countries. To develop effective policies, it is important to know whether mothers with young children who are not gainfully employed prefer to be at home and care for their children, or are involuntarily out of the labor force, because they could not prevent getting those children. In this study having twins is used as the external shock due to which some women have obtained more children than they wanted. These women are compared with those who are similar in many respects (married and have at least one child) but did not experience this shock.     #$&.13457@st|}¡íÜʹʹʧ˜¹„|oaSFa;Shicy5OJQJ^Jh
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