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Volume 104, Issue 1, Jan 2014
1. Title: Sales Taxes and Internet Commerce
Authors: Einav, Liran; Knoepfle, Dan; Levin, Jonathan; Sundaresan, Neel.
Abstract: We estimate the sensitivity of Internet retail purchasing to sales taxes using eBay data. Our first approach exploits the fact that a seller's location--and therefore the applicable tax rate--is revealed only after a buyer has expressed interest in an item. We document how adverse tax "surprises" reduce the likelihood of purchase and shift subsequent purchases toward out-of-state sellers. We then use more aggregated data to estimate that every one percentage point increase in a state's sales tax increases online purchases by state residents by almost 2 percent, while decreasing their online purchases from state retailers by 3-4 percent.
2. Title: Risk Shocks
Authors: Christiano, Lawrence J; Motto, Roberto; Rostagno, Massimo.
Abstract: We augment a standard monetary dynamic general equilibrium model to include a Bernanke-Gertler-Gilchrist financial accelerator mechanism. We fit the model to US data, allowing the volatility of cross-sectional idiosyncratic uncertainty to fluctuate over time. We refer to this measure of volatility as risk. We find that fluctuations in risk are the most important shock driving the business cycle.
3. Title: Aligned Delegation
Authors: Frankel, Alexander.
Abstract: A principal delegates multiple decisions to an agent, who has private information relevant to each decision. The principal is uncertain about the agent's preferences. I solve for max-min optimal mechanisms--those which maximize the principal's payoff against the worst case agent preference types. These mechanisms are characterized by a property I call "aligned delegation": all agent types play identically, as if they shared the principal's preferences. Max-min optimal mechanisms may take the simple forms of ranking mechanisms, budgets, or sequential quotas.
4. Title: Immigration and the Diffusion of Technology: The Huguenot Diaspora in Prussia
Authors: Hornung, Erik.
Abstract: This paper analyzes long-term effects of skilled-worker immigration on productivity for the Huguenot migration to Prussia. In 1685, religiously persecuted French Huguenots settled in Brandenburg-Prussia and compensated for population losses due to plagues during the Thirty Years' War. We combine Huguenot immigration lists from 1700 with Prussian firm-level data on the value of inputs and outputs in 1802 in a unique database to analyze the effects of skilled immigration to places with underused economic potential. Exploiting this settlement pattern in an instrumental-variable approach, we find substantial long-term effects of Huguenot settlement on the productivity of textile manufactories.
5. Title: Violence and Risk Preference: Experimental Evidence from Afghanistan
Authors: Callen, Michael; Isaqzadeh, Mohammad; Long, James D; Sprenger, Charles.
Abstract: We investigate the relationship between violence and economic risk preferences in Afghanistan combining: (i) a two-part experimental procedure identifying risk preferences, violations of Expected Utility, and specific preferences for certainty; (ii) controlled recollection of fear based on established methods from psychology; and (iii) administrative violence data from precisely geocoded military records. We document a specific preference for certainty in violation of Expected Utility. The preference for certainty, which we term a Certainty Premium, is exacerbated by the combination of violent exposure and controlled fearful recollections. The results have implications for risk taking and are potentially actionable for policymakers and marketers.
6. Title: Consumption Risk-Sharing in Social Networks
Authors: Ambrus, Attila; Mobius, Markus; Szeidl, Adam.
Abstract: We develop a model in which connections between individuals serve as social collateral to enforce informal insurance payments. We show that: (i) The degree of insurance is governed by the expansiveness of the network, measured with the per capita number of connections that groups have with the rest of the community. "Two-dimensional" networks--like real-world networks in Peruvian villages--are sufficiently expansive to allow very good risk-sharing. (ii) In second-best arrangements, insurance is local: agents fully share shocks within, but imperfectly between endogenously emerging risk-sharing groups. We also discuss how endogenous social collateral affects our results.
7. Title: Risk Sharing and Transactions Costs: Evidence from Kenya's Mobile Money Revolution
Authors: Jack, William; Suri, Tavneet.
Abstract: We explore the impact of reduced transaction costs on risk sharing by estimating the effects of a mobile money innovation on consumption. In our panel sample, adoption of the innovation increased from 43 to 70 percent. We find that, while shocks reduce consumption by 7 percent for nonusers, the consumption of user households is unaffected. The mechanisms underlying these consumption effects are increases in remittances received and the diversity of senders. We report robustness checks supporting these results and use the four-fold expansion of the mobile money agent network as a source of exogenous variation in access to the innovation.
8. Title: Estimating a Structural Model of Herd Behavior in Financial Markets
Authors: Cipriani, Marco; Guarino, Antonio.
Abstract: We develop a new methodology to estimate herd behavior in financial markets. We build a model of informational herding that can be estimated with financial transaction data. In the model, rational herding arises because of information-event uncertainty. We estimate the model using data on a NYSE stock (Ashland Inc.) during 1995. Herding occurs often and is particularly pervasive on some days. On average, the proportion of herd buyers is 2 percent; that of herd sellers is 4 percent. Herding also causes important informational inefficiencies in the market, amounting, on average, to 4 percent of the asset's expected value.
9. Title: Worktime Regulations and Spousal Labor Supply
Authors: Goux, Dominique; Maurin, Eric; Petrongolo, Barbara.
Abstract: We study interdependencies in spousal labor supply by exploiting the design of the French workweek reduction, which introduced exogenous variation in one's spouse's labor supply, at constant earnings. Treated employees work on average two hours less per week. Husbands of treated women respond by reducing their labor supply by about half an hour, consistent with substantial leisure complementarity, and specifically cut the nonusual component of their workweek, leaving usual hours unchanged. Women's response to their husband's treatment is instead weak and rarely statistically significant, possibly due to heavier constraints in the organization of their workweek.
10. Title: One Swallow Doesn't Make a Summer: New Evidence on Anchoring Effects
Authors: Zacharias Maniadis; Tufano, Fabio; List, John A.
Abstract: Some researchers have argued that anchoring in economic valuations casts doubt on the assumption of consistent and stable preferences. We present new evidence that explores the strength of certain anchoring results. We then present a theoretical framework that provides insights into why we should be cautious of initial empirical findings in general. The model importantly highlights that the rate of false positives depends not only on the observed significance level, but also on statistical power, research priors, and the number of scholars exploring the question. Importantly, a few independent replications dramatically increase the chances that the original finding is true.
11. Title: Partnerships versus Corporations: Moral Hazard, Sorting, and Ownership Structure
Authors: Kaya, Aya; Vereshchagina, Galina.
Abstract: Team production takes advantage of technological complementarities but comes with the cost of free-ridership. When workers differ in skills, the choice of sorting pattern may be associated with a nontrivial trade-off between exploiting the technological complementarities and minimizing the cost of free-ridership. This paper demonstrates that whether such a trade-off arises depends (i) on how the power of incentives required for effort provision varies with workers' types, and (ii) on whether the workers are organized for production in partnerships or in corporations. These results have implications for how production is organized in different industries--in partnerships or in corporations.
12. Title: Social Ideology and Taxes in a Differentiated Candidates Framework
Authors: Krasa, Stefan; Polborn, Mattias.
Abstract: Many observers argue that political polarization, particularly on social and cultural issues, has increased in the United States. How does this influence the political competition on economic issues? We analyze this question using a framework in which two officemotivated candidates differ in their fixed ideological position and choose a level of government spending to maximize their vote share. In equilibrium, candidates cater to a set of swing voters who contain socially conservative and economically-liberal voters, as well as socially-liberal and economically-conservative voters. We analyze how voters' cultural preferences and candidates' cultural positions influence equilibrium economic positions.
13. Title: Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset: Comment
Authors: Bauer, Michael D; Rudebusch, Glenn D; Wu, Jing Cynthia.
Abstract: Term premia implied by maximum likelihood estimates of affine term structure models are misleading because of small-sample bias. We show that accounting for this bias alters the conclusions about the trend, cycle, and macroeconomic determinants of the term premia estimated in Wright (2011). His term premium estimates are essentially acyclical, and often just parallel the secular trend in longterm interest rates. In contrast, bias-corrected term premia show pronounced countercyclical behavior, consistent with theoretical and empirical arguments about movements in risk premia.
14. Title: Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset: Reply: Go to http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.104.1.338 to visit the article page for additional materials and author disclosure statement(s).
Authors: Wright, Jonathan H.
Abstract: Bauer, Rudebusch, and Wu (2014) advocate the use of bias-corrected estimates in their comment on Wright (2011). Econometric estimation of a macro-finance VAR provides quite imprecise estimates of future short-term interest rates. Nonetheless, comparison with survey responses indicates that the proposed bias-corrected point estimates are less plausible than their maximum-likelihood counterparts.
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