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Risk Analysis Volume 37, Issue 5, May 2017 1. Title: Elisabeth Paté-Cornell: Learning from Hazards and Accidents. Authors: Greenberg, Michael; Lowrie, Karen. Abstract: The article presents a brief career profile of Elisabeth Pate-Cornell, a Stanford University Professor in the Department of Management Science and Engineering and the Founding Chair of the Department. She was born in Dakar, Senegal, and attended junior high school in the local public school system. She studied mathematics and physics and economics in Europe before moving to California for graduate studies in Operations Research at Stanford. 2. Title: What Defines Us as Professionals in the Field of Risk Analysis? Authors: Aven, Terje. Abstract: In a recent issue of Risk Analysis, the then-President of the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA), Pamela Williams, has some interesting reflections about the risk analysis field. She states that the ability and desire to tackle difficult problems using a risk analytical approach is what uniquely defines us as professionals in the field of risk analysis. The point of departure for her discussion is interviews with the plenary speakers of the 2014 SRA Annual Meeting, who addressed two divisive topics: hydraulic fracking and marijuana use. She points to several themes that invite contributions from the field of risk analysis, including: Has the full spectrum of potential risks and benefits been identified and weighted, and what are the risk tradeoffs or countervailing risks? Inspired by Williams's reflections, and by analyzing the issues raised in the interviews, this article seeks to clarify what our field is really providing. A main conclusion of the article is that it is essential to acknowledge that professionals in the field of risk analysis merely support the tackling of such problems, and that their genuine competence-that which distinguishes them from other professionals-lies in the risk analytical approach itself. 3. Title: Part I--Comparing Noncancer Chronic Human Health Reference Values: An Analysis of Science Policy Choices. Authors: Holman, Elizabeth; Francis, Royce; Gray, George. Abstract: The goal of this study was to systematically evaluate the choices made in deriving a chronic oral noncancer human health reference value (HHRV) for a given chemical by different organizations, specifically those from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Health Canada, RIVM (the Netherlands), and the U.S. Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry. This analysis presents a methodological approach for comparing both the HHRVs and the specific choices made in the process of deriving an HHRV across these organizations. Overall, across the 96 unique chemicals and 171 two-way organizational comparisons, the HHRV agreed approximately 26% of the time. A qualitative method for identifying the primary factors influencing these HHRV differences was also developed, using arrays of HHRVs across organizations for the same chemical. The primary factors identified were disagreement on the critical or principal study and differential application of the total uncertainty factor across organizations. Of the cases where the total UF was the primary factor influencing HHRV disagreement, the database UF had the greatest influence. 4. Title: Part II: Quantitative Evaluation of Choices Used in Setting Noncancer Chronic Human Health Reference Values Across Organizations. Authors: Holman, Elizabeth; Francis, Royce; Gray, George. Abstract: Environmental and public health organizations, including the World Health Organization (WHO) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), develop human health reference values (HHRV) that set 'safe' levels of exposure to noncarcinogens. Here, we systematically analyze chronic HHRVs from four organizations: USEPA, Health Canada, RIVM (the Netherlands), and the U.S. Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry. This study is an extension of our earlier work and both closely examines the choices made in setting HHRVs and presents a quantitative method for identifying the primary factors influencing HHRV agreement or disagreement.(1) We evaluated 171 organizational comparisons, developing a quantitative method for identifying the factors to which HHRV agreement (that is, when both organizations considering the same data set the identical HHRV values) is most sensitive. To conduct this analysis, a Bayesian belief network was built using expert judgment, including the specific science policy choices analysis made in the context of setting an HHRV. Based on a sensitivity of findings analysis, HHRV agreement is most sensitive to the point of departure value, followed by the total uncertainty factor (UF), critical study, critical effect, animal model, and point of departure approach. This analysis also considered the specific impacts of individual UFs, with the database UF and the subchronic-to-chronic UF being identified as primary factors impacting the total UF differences observed across organizations. The sensitivity of findings analysis results were strengthened and confirmed by frequency analyses evaluating which choices most often disagreed when the HHRV and the total UF disagreed. 5. Title: Underprotection of Unpredictable Statistical Lives Compared to Predictable Ones. Authors: Lipsitch, Marc; Evans, Nicholas G.; Cotton-Barratt, Owen. Abstract: Existing ethical discussion considers the differences in care for identified versus statistical lives. However, there has been little attention to the different degrees of care that are taken for different kinds of statistical lives. Here we argue that for a given number of statistical lives at stake, there will sometimes be different, and usually greater, care taken to protect predictable statistical lives, in which the number of lives that will be lost can be predicted fairly accurately, than for unpredictable statistical lives, where the lives are at stake because of a low-probability event, such that most likely no one will be affected by the decision but with low probability some lives will be at stake. One reason for this difference is the statistical challenge of estimating low probabilities, and in particular the tendency of common approaches to underestimate these probabilities. Another is the existence of rational incentives to treat unpredictable risks as if the probabilities were lower than they are. Some of these factors apply outside the pure economic context, to institutions, individuals, and governments. We argue that there is no ethical reason to treat unpredictable statistical lives differently from predictable statistical lives. Moreover, lives that are unpredictable from the perspective of an individual agent may become predictable when aggregated to the level of a societal decision. Underprotection of unpredictable statistical lives is a form of market failure that may need to be corrected by altering regulation, introducing compulsory liability insurance, or other social policies. 6. Title: Dose-Response Modeling with Summary Data from Developmental Toxicity Studies. Authors: Fox, John F.; Hogan, Karen A.; Davis, Allen. Abstract: Dose-response analysis of binary developmental data (e.g., implant loss, fetal abnormalities) is best done using individual fetus data (identified to litter) or litter-specific statistics such as number of offspring per litter and proportion abnormal. However, such data are not often available to risk assessors. Scientific articles usually present only dose-group summaries for the number or average proportion abnormal and the total number of fetuses. Without litter-specific data, it is not possible to estimate variances correctly (often characterized as a problem of overdispersion, intralitter correlation, or 'litter effect'). However, it is possible to use group summary data when the design effect has been estimated for each dose group. Previous studies have demonstrated useful dose-response and trend test analyses based on design effect estimates using litter-specific data from the same study. This simplifies the analysis but does not help when litter-specific data are unavailable. In the present study, we show that summary data on fetal malformations can be adjusted satisfactorily using estimates of the design effect based on historical data. When adjusted data are then analyzed with models designed for binomial responses, the resulting benchmark doses are similar to those obtained from analyzing litter-level data with nested dichotomous models. 7. Title: Assessment of Health Risk from Historical Use of Cosmetic Talcum Powder. Authors: Anderson, Elizabeth L.; Sheehan, Patrick J.; Kalmes, Renee M.; Griffin, John R. Abstract: This study's objective is to assess the risk of asbestos-related disease being contracted by past users of cosmetic talcum powder. To our knowledge, no risk assessment studies using exposure data from historical exposures or chamber simulations have been published. We conducted activity-based sampling with cosmetic talcum powder samples from five opened and previously used containers that are believed to have been first manufactured and sold in the 1960s and 1970s. These samples had been subject to conflicting claims of asbestos content; samples with the highest claimed asbestos content were tested. The tests were conducted in simulated-bathroom controlled chambers with volunteers who were talc users. Air sampling filters were prepared by direct preparation techniques and analyzed by phase contrast microscopy (PCM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM) with energy-dispersive x-ray (EDX) spectra, and selective area diffraction (SAED). TEM analysis for asbestos resulted in no confirmed asbestos fibers and only a single fiber classified as 'ambiguous.' Hypothetical treatment of this fiber as if it were asbestos yields a risk of 9.6 × 10"7 (under one in one million) for a lifetime user of this cosmetic talcum powder. The exposure levels associated with these results range from zero to levels far below those identified in the epidemiology literature as posing a risk for asbestos-related disease, and substantially below published historical environmental background levels. The approaches used for this study have potential application to exposure evaluations of other talc or asbestos-containing materials and consumer products. 8. Title: Development of REACH Generic Exposure Scenarios for Substances Used as Coformulants in Plant Protection Products. Authors: Dobe, Christopher; Bonifay, Sebastien; Fliege, Ralph; Krass, Joachim; Mostert, Volker; Vosswinkel, Renate; Wormuth, Matthias. Abstract: This article reviews the interactions between the REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorization and restriction of Chemicals) regulation and the plant protection product regulation for substances used as coformulants in the European Union, and describes generic exposure scenarios developed for their exposure and risk assessment. The REACH exposure scenarios describe the operational conditions and risk management measures used in the risk assessment of a coformulant, and as such these translate as the boundaries of safe use. The generic exposure scenarios are designed to be simple, and closely integrate with REACH use descriptors and customized exposure models. Clustering of application methods and exposure determinants resulted in four generic exposure scenarios, each covering professional workers or consumers, and application of products in liquid, granular form, or applied on seeds. When used in conjunction with appropriate exposure models, the generic exposure scenarios support efficient first-tier risk assessment of coformulants by utilizing a higher level of abstraction and conservatism than typically used in plant protection product assessments. 9. Title: Modeling Rabbit Responses to Single and Multiple Aerosol Exposures of Bacillus anthracis Spores. Authors: Coleman, Margaret E.; Marks, Harry M.; Bartrand, Timothy A.; Donahue, Darrell W.; Hines, Stephanie A.; Comer, Jason E.; Taft, Sarah C. Abstract: Survival models are developed to predict response and time-to-response for mortality in rabbits following exposures to single or multiple aerosol doses of Bacillus anthracis spores. Hazard function models were developed for a multiple-dose data set to predict the probability of death through specifying functions of dose response and the time between exposure and the time-to-death (TTD). Among the models developed, the best-fitting survival model (baseline model) is an exponential dose-response model with a Weibull TTD distribution. Alternative models assessed use different underlying dose-response functions and use the assumption that, in a multiple-dose scenario, earlier doses affect the hazard functions of each subsequent dose. In addition, published mechanistic models are analyzed and compared with models developed in this article. None of the alternative models that were assessed provided a statistically significant improvement in fit over the baseline model. The general approach utilizes simple empirical data analysis to develop parsimonious models with limited reliance on mechanistic assumptions. The baseline model predicts TTDs consistent with reported results from three independent high-dose rabbit data sets. More accurate survival models depend upon future development of dose-response data sets specifically designed to assess potential multiple-dose effects on response and time-to-response. The process used in this article to develop the best-fitting survival model for exposure of rabbits to multiple aerosol doses of B. anthracis spores should have broad applicability to other host-pathogen systems and dosing schedules because the empirical modeling approach is based upon pathogen-specific empirically-derived parameters. 10. Title: Health Claims and Methodological Controversy in Nutrition Science. Authors: Todt, Oliver; Luján, José Luis. Abstract: This article analyzes the debate about data acquisition and assessment in health claims regulation by identifying the underlying controversies on methodological choice. Regulation in the European Union imposes the need for a scientific substantiation of all health claims (claims about a relationship between consumption of certain food ingredients and positive health effects). Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the method that generally is considered to provide the highest quality data for decision making in claims regulation because they allow for establishing cause-effect relationships. The latter are demanded in European regulatory practice for authorization of a claim. This requirement has contributed to a debate about the advantages and limitations of the RCT methodology in nutrition research and regulation. Our analysis identifies five types of tensions that underlie the controversy, with respect to evidence, cognitive values, standards of proof, future lines of research, as well as expert judgment. We conclude that there is a direct and mutual interaction between methodological decisions in nutrition science, and different strategies in health claims regulation. The latter have social and public health consequences because not only may they affect the European market for functional foods, as well as concomitant consumption patterns, but also the generation of future regulation-relevant evidence in nutrition. 11. Title: Recollection Bias and Its Underpinnings: Lessons from Terrorism Risk Assessments. Authors: Viscusi, W. Kip; Zeckhauser, Richard J. Abstract: Recollection bias is the phenomenon whereby people who observe a highly unexpected event hold current risk beliefs about a similar event that are no higher than their recollection of their prior beliefs. This article replicates and extends the authors' previous study of recollection bias in relation to individuals' perceptions of the risks of terrorism attacks. Over 60% of respondents in a national U.S. sample of over 900 adults believe that the current risk of a future terrorist attack by either an airplane or in a public setting is no higher than they recall having believed, respectively, before the 9/11 attack and before the Boston Marathon bombing. By contrast, a rational Bayesian model would update to a higher currently assessed risk of these previously uncontemplated events. Recollection bias is a persistent trait: individuals who exhibited this bias for the 9/11 attack exhibited it for the Boston Marathon bombing. Only one-fifth of respondents are free of any type of recollection bias. Recollection bias is negatively correlated with absolute levels of risk belief. Recollection bias in relation to highly unexpected terrorist events-the belief that perceived risks did not increase after the surprise occurrence-dampens support for a variety of anti-terrorism measures, controlling for the level of risk beliefs and demographic factors. Persistent recollection bias for both 9/11 and the Boston Marathon bombing is especially influential in diminishing support for protective policy measures, such as surveillance cameras in public places. Given that public attitudes influence policy, educating the public about risk is critical. 12. Title: Validating Resilience and Vulnerability Indices in the Context of Natural Disasters. Authors: Bakkensen, Laura A.; Fox-Lent, Cate; Read, Laura K.; Linkov, Igor. Abstract: Due to persistent and serious threats from natural disasters around the globe, many have turned to resilience and vulnerability research to guide disaster preparation, recovery, and adaptation decisions. In response, scholars and practitioners have put forth a variety of disaster indices, based on quantifiable metrics, to gauge levels of resilience and vulnerability. However, few indices are empirically validated using observed disaster impacts and, as a result, it is often unclear which index should be preferred for each decision at hand. Thus, we compare and empirically validate five of the top U.S. disaster indices, including three resilience indices and two vulnerability indices. We use observed disaster losses, fatalities, and disaster declarations from the southeastern United States to empirically validate each index. We find that disaster indices, though thoughtfully substantiated by literature and theoretically persuasive, are not all created equal. While four of the five indices perform as predicted in explaining damages, only three explain fatalities and only two explain disaster declarations as expected by theory. These results highlight the need for disaster indices to clearly state index objectives and structure underlying metrics to support validation of the results based on these goals. Further, policymakers should use index results carefully when developing regional policy or investing in resilience and vulnerability improvement projects. 13. Title: Are People Interested in Probabilities of Natural Disasters? Authors: Michailova, Julija; Tyszka, Tadeusz; Pfeifer, Katarzyna. Abstract: Previous research has demonstrated that in naturalistic risky decisions people tend to have little interest in receiving information about probabilities. The present research asked whether subjects search for and employ probabilistic information in situations that are representative of natural disasters: namely, situations where (1) they have no control over the occurrence of a negative event and (2) there might be huge losses of physical and human capital. Pseudo-realistic scenarios involving risky situations were presented to 116 experimental participants. Based on the active information search paradigm, subjects were given only a basic description of the situation and had to acquire additional information from the experimenter. In addition to the main task, the individual risk aversion of participants was measured. We demonstrate that in pseudo-naturalistic scenarios involving natural disasters people tend to show more interest in probabilities compared to scenarios with generally more controllable risks. Moreover, this interest increases with an increase in the importance of the situation to the decisionmaker. The importance of the situation also has a positive influence on the thoroughness of information search. The experiment detected no connection between individual risk aversion and information search. 14. Title: The Origin and Role of Trust in Local Policy Elites' Perceptions of High-Voltage Power Line Installations in the State of Arkansas. Authors: Tumlison, Creed; Moyer, Rachael M.; Song, Geoboo. Abstract: The debate over an installation of high-voltage power lines (HVPLs) has been intense, particularly in northwest Arkansas. Detractors claim that the installation will negatively affect both the natural environment and the local economy, which contains a large tourism component. By contrast, those in favor of installing HVPLs claim that the installation is necessary in order to reliably support the increasing demand for electric power. Using original data collected from a recent statewide Internet survey of 420 local policy elites in Arkansas, this article focuses on two key aspects. First, we examine how local policy elites' perceptions of risks versus benefits of HVPL installation in their communities are influenced by their levels of trust toward information provided by various sources (e.g., energy industry, environmental groups, and government). Second, we utilize cultural theory to explain how the cultural worldviews of policy elites--specifically, egalitarianism, individualism, hierarchism, and fatalism--shape these levels of trust and HVPL benefit-risk perceptions, while controlling for other factors claimed by previous literature, including levels of knowledge on energy-related issues and demographic characteristics. In general, our analysis indicates  "%(*+,.67stíÜʹʨʖ‡¹sk^PI;Phü
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