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World Development Volume 123, Issue 11, November 2019 1. Title: “Lies build trust”: Social capital, masculinity, and community-based resource management in a Mexican fishery Authors: Ben Siegelman; Nora Haenn; Xavier Basurto. Abstract: This paper relates how fishermen in San Evaristo on Mexico’s Baja peninsula employ fabrications to strengthen bonds of trust and navigate the complexities of common pool resource extraction. We argue this trickery complicates notions of social capital in community-based natural resource management, which emphasize communitarianism in the form of trust. Trust, defined as a mutual dependability often rooted in honesty, reliable information, or shared expectations, has long been recognized as essential to common pool resource management. Despite this, research that takes a critical approach to social capital places attention on the activities that foster social networks and their norms by arguing that social capital is a process. A critical approach illuminates San Evaristeño practices of lying and joking across social settings and contextualizes these practices within cultural values of harmony. As San Evaristeños assert somewhat paradoxically, for them “lies build trust.” Importantly, a critical approach to this case study forces consideration of gender, an overlooked topic in social capital research. San Evaristeña women are excluded from the verbal jousting through which men maintain ties supporting their primacy in fishery management. Both men’s joke-telling and San Evaristeños’ aversion to conflict have implications for conservation outcomes. As a result, we use these findings to help explain local resistance to outsiders and external management strategies including land trusts, fishing cooperatives, and marine protected areas. 2. Title: Social inclusion increases with time for zero-tillage wheat in the Eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains Authors: Alwin Keil; Archisman Mitra; Amit K. Srivastava; Andrew McDonald. Abstract: Sustainable intensification (SI) approaches to agricultural development are urgently needed to meet the growing demand for crop staples while protecting ecosystem services and environmental quality. However, SI initiatives have been criticized for neglecting social welfare outcomes. A recent review found that better-off farmers benefitted disproportionately from SI and highlighted the dearth of studies assessing the equity of outcomes. In this study, we explore the social inclusiveness of zero-tillage (ZT) wheat adoption in Bihar, India. ZT is a proven SI technology for enhancing wheat productivity while boosting profitability and reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural machinery in the densely populated Indo-Gangetic Plains. With an average landholding size of 0.39/ ha, most farmers in Bihar depend on custom-hiring services to access the technology. While service provision models should foster inclusive growth by reducing financial barriers to technology adoption, early evidence suggested that smallholders remained at a disadvantage. Building on this previous research, we use a panel dataset from 961 wheat-growing households that spans a six-year period to analyze ZT adoption dynamics over time while accounting for the role of social networks and access to service provision. Using a heckprobit approach to correct for non-exposure bias, we compare determinants of ZT awareness and use in 2012 and 2015. We apply a multinomial logit model to identify determinants of early adoption, recent adoption, non-adoption, and dis-adoption. Furthermore, we explore the quality of ZT services as an additional dimension of socially-inclusive technology access. We find that the strong initial scale bias in ZT use declined substantially as awareness of the technology increased and the service economy expanded. Land fragmentation replaced total landholding size as a significant adoption determinant, which also affected the quality of ZT services received. Hence, farmers with small but contiguous landholdings appear to have gained a significant degree of access over time. We conclude that early-stage assessments of SI may be misleading, and that private sector-based service provision can contribute to socially inclusive development outcomes as markets mature. 3. Title: Gold and godfathers: Local content, politics, and capitalism in extractive industries Authors: Sara Geenen Abstract: By zooming in on the concept of ‘local content’, this article speaks to the debate on extractive industries and development. It challenges two fundamental assumptions of the mainstream local content literature: that production linkages will develop if an enabling environment is created, and that local content is beneficial for local people. Based on almost 600 interviews and focus groups in four mining concessions in Ghana and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) it focuses on how local content policies are translated into concrete practices – more particularly around the granting of contracts and employment. In doing so it unravels the political dimensions of local content policies and their structural embeddedness in large-scale extractivist projects. It is argued that local content policies are implemented in complex political arenas, where the power holders use them as political instruments to enhance profit accumulation and control rents. Moreover they are embedded in the structural dynamics that permeate large-scale extractivist projects, producing (new) patterns of exclusion. 4. Title: Discrimination and favouritism among South African workers: Ethnic identity and union membership Authors: Chiara Ravetti; Mare Sarr; Daniel Munene; Tim Swanson. Abstract: This paper analyses the ways in which ethnic identity and labour institutions shape favouritism and discrimination among workers. We conduct a lab experiment in the field with South African coal miners from various ethnic groups and with different trade union membership status. Our analysis suggests that union identity and ethnic identity are two social constructs that operate in a distinct and opposite fashion. Unionization acts as a factor of workers solidarity beyond the confine of union membership. Conversely, ethnicity operates as the linchpin through which discrimination among workers is infused not only between ethnic majority and minorities, but also within the majority group itself. We find that the widespread practice of subcontracting in the mining sector exacerbates ethnic discrimination among workers both between and within ethnic groupings. 5. Title: The multidimensionality of exclusion in the small-scale gold mining sector in Guyana: Institutional reform, landlordism, and mineral uncertainty Authors: Andrew Hook Abstract: Proponents of formalization argue that bringing artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) into the legal sphere represents the best way of enabling social and economic development. Critics counter that formalization policies can be a source of exclusion for smaller producers, as new properties become difficult and expensive to access, and new regulatory standards prove beyond the technical and financial capacity of smaller operators. Guyana’s long-formalized ASM gold mining sector offers a useful lens through which to examine these arguments. This article finds that Guyana’s relatively established and egalitarian ASM sector has become the site of various complex exclusionary dynamics. On the one hand, the impacts of increasingly restrictive state-led forms appear to support contentions about how formal mining environments tend towards the exclusion of smaller operators. On the other hand, evidence shows that it is not merely state policies that are responsible for exclusion, but further social and ecological factors, such as landlord-tenant relations and the depth and scarcity of mineral deposits. Overall, these findings offer new perspectives on ASM dynamics within formalized institutional environments. They suggest that understanding exclusion can be aided by adopting an analytical lens capable of capturing the complex interactions between a range of social and ecological phenomena. 6. Title: Why India’s urbanization is hidden: Observations from “rural” Bihar Authors: Robbin Jan van Duijne Abstract: In the developing world, processes of urbanization sometimes remain hidden in official statistics and urban populations are thought to be substantially misread. This article aims to better understand why that happens in urbanizing rural India. It situates hidden urban growth within a framework of agrarian transformation and distress-driven employment shifts out of agriculture. The analysis is based on mixed methods research: I draw on geospatial approaches that visualize population concentration and shifts in the economic profiles of villages, and on local fieldwork in rural Bihar, northeastern India. I find that hidden urbanization in Bihar mainly occurs around rapidly growing secondary cities that have spilled over into surrounding villages. Livelihoods in these villages are now for the most part based in secondary and tertiary economic sectors, but for a (declining) number of households farming still remains part of their livelihood portfolios. I show how village leaders, mukhiyas, actively hold on to the “rural” status of these villages even when urban growth has been substantial. Rural-to-urban settlement reclassification has consequences for village residents in terms of cost of living, land-ownership, access to rural development funding, and democratic and inclusive participation in local governance. These findings have a theoretical bearing on urbanizing India, and have direct implications for our understanding of allegedly underdeveloped rural states like Bihar. 7. Title: Fear of the state in governance surveys? Empirical evidence from African countries Authors: Thomas Calvo; Mireille Razafindrakoto; François Roubaud. Abstract: The need to collect data on governance-related issues has been growing since the 1990s. Demand gained momentum in 2015 with the adoption of SDG16 worldwide and Agenda 2063 in Africa. African countries played a key role in the adoption of SDG16 and are now leading the process of collecting harmonised household data on Governance, Peace and Security (GPS). Yet the possibility has recently been raised that sensitive survey data collected by government institutions are potentially biased due to self-censorship by respondents. This paper studies the potential bias in responses to what are seen as sensitive questions, here governance issues, in surveys conducted by public organisations. We compare Afrobarometer (AB) survey data, collected in eight African countries by self-professed independent institutions, with first-hand harmonised GPS survey data collected by National Statistics Offices (NSOs). We identify over 20 similarly worded questions on democracy, trust in institutions and perceived corruption. We first compare responses from AB survey respondents based on who they believe the survey sponsor to be. No systematic response bias is found between respondents who believe the government to be behind the AB survey and those who consider it to be conducted by an independent institution. Our estimations suggest that the observed residual differences are due to a selection bias on the observables, which is mitigated by propensity score matching procedures. The absence of a systematic self-censorship or attenuation bias is further evidenced by means of an experimental design, whereby responses from GPS surveys conducted by NSOs (the treatment) are compared with AB surveys sponsored by reportedly independent bodies. Our results provide evidence, at much higher levels of precision than other existing data sources, of the capacity and legitimacy of government-related organisations to collect data on governance as a matter of national interest and sovereignty. 8. Title: Disaster Resilience Integrated Framework for Transformation (DRIFT): A new approach to theorising and operationalising resilience Authors: Bernard Manyena; Fortunate Machingura; Phil O'Keefe. Abstract: Despite the heightened interest in resilience over the past decade, theorising and operationalising resilience across sustainable development, disaster risk reduction and climate change and adaptation realms remains a challenge. The frameworks that have been developed to theorise and operationalise resilience tend to be vague, and, in some cases, theoretically weak. The major challenge, we believe, is the lack of clarity on the resilience capacities required to deal with the destabilising events. In this article, we provide a chronology of resilience, on a decade basis, from 1970 to 2016 in order to establish the connections between resilience and capacity literatures, and how these literatures affect the operationalisation of resilience. Based on the resilience and capacity literature review, a new approach to resilience termed Disaster Resilience Integrated Framework for Transformation (DRIFT) is presented, which advances the notion of capacity, as one of the principal bridges between the resilience theory and practice. DRIFT outlines the linkages between context, risk drivers, capacities and processes that are required to deal with the risk in order to achieve positive outcomes. We present the preventive, anticipative, absorptive, adaptive and transformative capacities as distinct elements, although in practice there are overlaps between these capacities. Presenting the capacities as distinct elements allows us to unpack the elements and the processes that may be critical in both theorising and operationalising resilience. Looking to the future, DRIFT is a first step towards developing a global resilience index, to be applied at various scales, including global, regional and local levels. 9. Title: Occupation aspirations, education investment, and cognitive outcomes: Evidence from Indian adolescents Authors: Phillip H. Ross Abstract: The occupation aspirations of adolescents play an important role in their human capital investment decisions. This paper provides new empirical evidence of a non-linear relationship between the size of an adolescent’s aspirations gap and human capital as a young adult. The adolescent aspirations gap is quantified as the difference between the wages associated with their occupation aspiration and the wages associated with their parent’s occupation. Higher aspirations at age 12 are correlated with higher human capital levels at age 19, up to a point. Above this inflection point the relationship plateaus and human capital levels no longer increase. Children with the largest aspiration gaps have lower human capital levels than those with more moderate gaps. This empirical result provides evidence for the theoretical prediction that aspirations that are ahead, but not too far ahead, provide the best incentives for investment. Examining potential mechanisms, I provide suggestive evidence that age 12 aspirations influence age 19 human capital levels through the child’s time investment in education, long-term orientation, and agency but not the level of household education expenditure. 10. Title: Assessing the impact of more doctors’ program on healthcare indicators in Brazil Authors: Enlinson Mattos; Debora Mazetto. Abstract: This paper aimed to assess the short term effects of the More Doctors Program, launched by the Brazilian federal government in 2013. Using a differences-in-differences approach with municipal data collected between 2010 and 2015, we confirmed that MDP has two correlated impacts. First, it has increased health service attendance in treated municipalities. We documented that appointments, consults, referrals, and home visits have increased by 5.9%, 9.4%, 12.3%, and 29.7%, respectively. Second, we found a negative impact on hospitalization. We argue that intensification of health service access has reduced general hospitalization (4.6%). However, it does not seem to have been able to reduce mortality in the municipalities, in line with the previous literature. We believe that increases in referrals and appointments with specialists can be interpreted as a quality improvement, since a more precise diagnosis can reduce hospitalization due to faster health recovery but without any impact on mortality. 11. Title: What can Smart City policies in emerging economies actually achieve? Conceptual considerations and empirical insights from India Authors: Martina Fromhold-Eisebith; Günter Eisebith. Abstract: Smart City (SC) strategies that aim at fostering sustainable urban development through the systemic implementation of modern information and communication technologies (ICTs) continue to appeal to national and municipal governments despite of increasingly skeptical academic debates. Especially in Asian emerging economies aspirations to create SCs are widespread, yet seem hopelessly illusionary in many cases and might actually harm rather than benefit most citizens. This paper acknowledges these critical views, yet also accentuates constructive perspectives on SC achievements that offer rays of hope especially for cities in less developed countries. We propose to emphasize influential process qualities of SC strategies, which can instigate broader governance and institutional transformations locally, rather than mainly looking at the technical product features of final SC settings. Refined conceptual distinctions between the product and process view on achievable outcomes of SC schemes are suggested which also borrow from evolutionary geography perspectives. To illustrate our propositions, the example of India’s Smart Cities Mission launched in 2015 is used. While the planned refurbishment of urban spaces in India is rightfully criticized by some, our own qualitative empirical research – a multiple case study analysis of five SC schemes in South India in spring 2018 – reveals several promising process qualities besides implementation deficiencies. Our study finds eight mechanisms of detrimental path dependency that obstruct SC progress, but also eight mechanisms of positive evolutionary change with respect to urban governance procedures. Making agents in emerging economies aware of these potential outcomes that reach beyond a mere urban technology focus can inspire more effective forthcoming SC strategies and policies. 12. Title: A new era for social protection analysis in LMICs? A critical social policy perspective from the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) Authors: Rana Jawad Abstract: This paper advocates for a new generation of social protection (SP) research that takes seriously the analysis of political and policy-making processes in the Global South. Based on qualitative research funded by the ESRC and Carnegie Corporation, it combines theoretical insights from social policy and critical policy analysis to highlight the importance of policy framing in shaping development and social welfare outcomes. Empirically, the broader research upon which the paper is based covers the broad range of social policy changes that have happened in the Middle East and North Africa region over the last decade. The critical policy approach adopted in this paper is important because of the endurance of SP as a global orientation in international development interventions at a time when its operationalisation in policy terms appears to be narrower than its professed goals. The paper categorises SP according to three orders of discourse: social risk management, social justice/social contracts, (“ex ante”) institutionalisation of social protection (specifically social assistance), in order to address areas of “discourse closure” (Veit-Wilson, 2000) in the conceptualisation of SP. On the basis of this categorisation, the paper proposes a framework for analysing SP that highlights the importance of three elements to aid SP policy operationalisation: (1) state-civil society relations in the provision of services; (2) the ethical and not only legal parameters of SP; (3) the enhancement of social cohesion as a final SP outcome. These three elements support a process-oriented analysis of SP encompassing policy actors, principles and goals that can better ascertain the long-term impact of SP on social policy agendas in the Global South. 13. Title: Indigenous unrest and the contentious politics of social assistance in Mexico Authors: Erdem Yörük; 0
brahim Öker; Lara ^
arlak. Abstract: Is social assistance being used to contain ethnic and racial unrest in developing countries? There is a growing literature on social assistance policies in the Global South, but this literature largely focuses on economic and demographic factors, underestimating the importance of contentious politics. The case of Mexico shows that social assistance programs are disproportionately directed to indigenous populations, leading to diminished protest participation. Drawing on data from the 2010, 2012 and 2014 rounds of the Latin American Public Opinion Project, we apply multivariate regression analysis to examine the determinants of social assistance program participation in Mexico. Our study finds that after controlling for income, household size, age, education, and employment status, indigenous ethnic identity is a key determinant in who benefits from social assistance in Mexico. Our results show that high ethnic disparity in social assistance is not only due to higher poverty rates among the indigenous population. Rather, indigenous people receive more social assistance mainly because of their ethnic identity. In addition, this study demonstrates that indigenous people who benefit from social assistance programs are less likely to join anti-government protests. We argue that this ethnic targeting in social assistance is a result of the fact that indigenous unrest has become a political threat for Mexican governments since the 1990s. These results yield substantive support in arguing that the Mexican government uses social assistance to contain indigenous unrest. The existing literature, which is dominated by structuralist explanations, needs to strongly consider the contentious political drivers of social assistance provision in the Global South for a full grasp of the phenomenon. Social assistance in Mexico is driven by social unrest and this suggests that similar ethnic, racial, religious and contentious political factors should be examined in other developing countries to understand social assistance provisions. 14. Title: Temperature extremes, global warming, and armed conflict: new insights from high resolution data Authors: Miriam Breckner; Uwe Sunde. Abstract: This paper contributes to the debate whether climate change and global warming cause conflicts by providing novel evidence about the role of extreme temperature events for armed conflict based on high-frequency high-resolution data for the entire continent of Africa. The analysis of monthly data for 4826 grid cells of 0.75° latitude/ ×/ longitude over the period 1997 2015 documents a positive effect of the occurrence of temperature extremes on conflict incidence. These effects are larger the more severe the extremes in terms of duration, and are larger in highly densely populated regions, in regions with lower agricultural productivity, and in regions with more pronounced land degradation. The results also point towards heterogeneity of the effect with respect to the type of violence and the crucial role of population dynamics. Considering the consequences of increases in the frequency of extreme events in a long-differences analysis delivers evidence for a positive effect on conflict. 15. Title: Should program graduation be better targeted? The other schooling outcomes of Mexico’s Oportunidades Authors: Tobias Pfutze Abstract: A large literature on Conditional Cash Transfers programs assesses the effects of becoming a beneficiary. However, the consequences of losing the benefit due to program graduation are largely unstudied. This paper replicates the eligibility score employed over 2010–15 by Mexico’s Oportunidades for a large household survey. Using a Regression Discontinuity Design around the threshold for program graduation, it shows that losing this additional incentive had a negative effect on high school attendance for lower secondary school aged students in urban, and upper secondary school aged ones in rural areas. The results suggest that the graduation thresholds are chosen too low. 16. Title: Does individualism promote gender equality? Authors: Lewis S. Davis; Claudia R. Williamson. Abstract: We argue that individualism promotes gender equality. Individualist values of autonomy and self-determination transcend gender identities and serve to legitimize women’s goals and choices. In contrast, collectivist values may subordinate women’s personal goals to their social obligations, generating greater acceptance of gender inequality. Using individual level data from World Values Surveys, we find that individualism is significantly associated with support for gender equal attitudes regarding employment, income, education, and political leadership. Individualism is also associated with greater levels of female employment and educational attainment, and lower levels of fertility. These results are robust to controlling for income, education, religion, historical plough use, gendered language, and country-time fixed effects. Our within country analysis allows us to isolate the impact of individualism from other confounding effects. Using historical rainfall variation as an instrument for individualism, we find that the exogenous portion of individualism reduces support for patriarchal attitudes and fertility, and it increases female employment and educational attainment. These effects are economically large. We address concerns over instrumental validity by controlling for a variety of factors, including historical plough use, religious affiliation, religiosity, social trust, average rainfall levels, distance from the equator, cool-water conditions, agricultural suitability, historical political and economic development, and the presence of large animals. This paper contributes to a mounting body of evidence suggesting a key role for highly persistent cultural norms and values in determining gender inequality, the gender division of labor, and economic and social outcomes for women. 17. Title: Food safety in low and middle-income countries: The evidence through an economic lens Authors: Vivian Hoffmann; Christine Moser; Alexander Saak. Abstract: Foodborne diseases exact a large health toll in low and middle-income countries. We review the empirical research on the safety of food produced and consumed in these settings. We follow the value chain, from consumer demand to agricultural production, to describe existing knowledge and identify gaps for future research. We identify factors that contribute to food safety problems in low and middle-income countries. These factors include: limited consumer awareness and ability to pay for food safety; the lack of incentives to invest in food safety along the food supply chain, from farmers to aggregators, processors, food service providers, and retailers; and weakness of the public institutions responsible for regulatory enforcement. Programs that engage midsize and larger firms in co-regulation and reward farmers and firms for investment in food safety suggest potential ways forward. 18. Title: Global inequality: How large is the effect of top incomes? Authors: Vanesa Jordá; Miguel Niño-Zarazúa. Abstract: Despite the growing interest in global inequality, assessing inequality trends is a major challenge because individual data on income or consumption is not often available. Nevertheless, the periodic release of certain summary statistics of the income distribution has become increasingly common. Hence, grouped data in form of income shares have been conventionally used to construct inequality trends based on lower bound approximations of inequality measures. This approach introduces two potential sources of measurement error: first, these estimates are constructed under the assumption of equality of incomes within income shares; second, the highest income earners are not included in the household surveys from which grouped data is obtained. In this paper, we propose to deploy a flexible parametric model, which addresses these two issues in order to obtain a reliable representation of the income distribution and accurate estimates of inequality measures. This methodology is used to estimate the recent evolution of global interpersonal inequality from 1990 to 2015 and to examine the effect of survey under-coverage of top incomes on the level and direction of global inequality. Overall, we find that item non-response at the top of the distribution substantially biases global inequality estimates, but, more importantly, it might also affect the direction of the trends. 19. Title: The impact of receiving SMS price and weather information on small scale farmers in Colombia Authors: Adriana Camacho; Emily Conover. Abstract: Small-scale farmers in developing countries often make production and sale decisions based on imprecise, informal, and out-of-date sources of information, such as family, neighbors, or tradition. Lack of timely and accurate information on climate and prices can lead to inefficiencies in the production, harvesting, and commercialization of agricultural products, which in turn can affect farmers’ revenues and well-being. We did a Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) experiment with 500 small-scale farmers in a rural area of Colombia where there is nearly full mobile phone usage and coverage. Treated farmers received around 8 text messages per week with prices in the main markets for crops grown in the region, and customized weather forecasts. Compared to a control group, we find that treated farmers were more likely to report that text messages provide useful information for planting and selling, and more likely to always read their messages, indicating an increase in appreciation and use of this type of technology. We also found heterogeneous effects by farmer size. Smaller farmers try to make use of the intervention by planting more crops for which they have price information. Larger farmers seek new markets and increase conversations with other producers. Despite these positive effects, we do not find a significant difference in farmers reporting a price, price differential with the market price, or sale prices received. Our results indicate that farmers are amenable to learning and using new technologies, but that the introduction of these technologies do not always translate into short-run welfare improvements for them. Given the increased interest in incorporating information and communication technologies into agriculture, our findings indicate that prior to a large-scale implementation it is necessary to better understand what prevents farmers from more directly profiting from this new information. 20. Title: Classifying Sustainable Development Goal trajectories: A country-level methodology for identifying which issues and people are getting left behind Authors: John W. McArthur; Krista Rasmussen. Abstract: How useful are the Sustainable Development Goals for conducting empirical analysis at the country level? We develop a methodological framework for answering this question, with special emphasis on the SDGs’ normative ambition of “no one left behind.” We first classify all 169 SDG targets and find that 78 incorporate an outcome-focus that is quantitatively assessable at the country level, including 43 through a systematic approach to establishing “proxy targets.” We then present a framework for diagnosing the embedded diversity of absolute and relative indicator trajectories in a harmonized manner, based on a country’s share of its starting gap on course to be closed by the relevant deadline. In turn, we present a method for estimating the human consequences of falling short on targets, measured by the number of lives at stake and people’s basic needs at stake. As a case study, we apply the framework to Canada, an economy not commonly examined in the context of global goals. We are able to assess a total of 61 targets through the use of 70 indicators, including 28 indicators drawn from the United Nations’ official database. Overall, we find Canada is on course to succeed on 18 indicators; to cover at least half but less than the full objective on 7 indicators; to cover less than half the required distance on 33 indicators; and to remain stagnant or move backwards on 12 indicators. Among indicators assessed, the country is only fully on track to achieve one SDG. Shortfalls suggest approximately 54,000 Canadian lives at stake and millions of people left behind on issues like poverty, education, intimate partner violence, and access to water and sanitation. Our diagnostic framework enables considerable, if only partial, quantification of a country’s SDG challenges, recognizing the wide range of contexts for underlying data availability and societal problems. 21. Title: Does exclusion matter in conservation agreements? A case of mangrove users in the Ecuadorian coast using participatory choice experiments Authors: Jorge H. Maldonado; Rocio Moreno-Sanchez; Juan P. Henao-Henao; Aaron Bruner. Abstract: Payments for environmental services (PES) constitute a growing approach to achieve the sustainability of ecosystems and the benefits they provide to people. However, informal tenure and lack of capacity to enforce property rights impede implementation of PES initiatives. Such challenges are common for local communities in coastal and marine areas who overexploit Common-Pool Resources (CPR) under open access. Assigning property rights to organized users has been implemented as a solution, transforming a public good into a club good. Nevertheless, the nature of CPR makes it difficult to define and enforce use rights based on territorial criteria, which might generate equity concerns between organized users and their peers who lose rights. This paper investigates, using a choice experiment, the willingness of Ecuadorian mangrove resource users to accept a conservation policy that combines a concession for sustainable extraction and an economic incentive. Given that a collective concession for the sustainable use and management of CPR implies exclusion of other communities, we specifically analyze two different access levels: i. total exclusion, where the agreement defines that no one other than the concessionaires can access and extract the resources, and ii. discretionary exclusion, where the concessionaires can establish their own rules and conditions for allowing access and use of the resources by third parties. Our interest is to identify how externally imposed rules around exclusion prevent or motivate organized users from participating in approaches to CPR management based on allocation of property rights. We find that having the discretion to choose the level of exclusion matters to resource users when deciding whether to accept the proposed mangrove management strategy. Moreover, we show that preferences for accepting the conservation policy exhibits heterogeneity among users. We contribute to the discussion on the determinants of participation in incentive-based conservation programs. 22. Title: Can land title reduce low-intensity interhousehold conflict incidences and associated damages in eastern DRC? Authors: Naureen Fatema Abstract: The broad aim of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of land reform policy as a sustainable tool for averting low-intensity local conflict and protecting vulnerable households in conflict and post-conflict societies from adverse consequences of conflict. Empirical studies on micro-level conflict have been limited on two fronts - the difficulty of collecting survey data from conflict prone societies, and a general lack of attention to the consequences of low-intensity local conflict. This paper attempts to address both these limitations. Using a survey on violent and non-violent conflict experiences of 1582 farming households from the postwar society of North Kivu, in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), I explore whether land title can i) lower the probability of low-intensity conflict between households; and ii) lower the damages for households in the event of a conflict. To address concerns of potential selection bias, I employ the quasi-experimental estimation technique of propensity score matching (PSM). A rigorous set of tests and sensitivity analyses ensures both the quality of matching and reliability of estimates. These findings show that land title reduces a household’s probability of experiencing low-intensity interhousehold conflict roughly between 10 and 18 percentage points. However, I find no evidence that households with land title are subject to lower damages in the event of a conflict. These findings suggest that in vulnerable societies with high exposure to conflict, land reform programs that just grant title to households may reduce conflict to some extent but will not necessarily reduce the adverse consequences associated with conflict. Thus, land title is not a panacea for all conflict related adversities and cannot serve as a stand-alone tool for reducing adversities associated with conflict. Further research is required on whether supplementing land reform programs with policies such as promoting good governance and strengthening local institutions can sustainably promote peaceful societies. 23. Title: Achieving sustainable development in India along low carbon pathways: Macroeconomic assessment Authors: Dipti Gupta; Frédéric Ghersi; Saritha S. Vishwanathan; Amit Garg. Abstract: Achieving fast and inclusive economic growth concurrently with greenhouse gases (GHG) emission control could have wide-ranging implications for the Indian economy, predominantly fuelled by fossil energies. India faces high income inequality with the bottom 50% of its population owning only 2% of total national wealth. Other developmental challenges include 304 million people living in poverty, 269 million without access to electricity, 92 million without access to safe drinking water, and around 2 million homeless. Despite such challenges, India has committed to reduce the GHG emission intensity of its GDP 33–35% below its 2005 level by 2030, including via turning 40% of its power-generation capacity away from fossil sources. To explore the macroeconomic consequences of achieving development along low-carbon pathways, we use a hybrid modelling architecture that combines the strengths of the AIM/Enduse bottom-up model of Indian energy systems and the IMACLIM top-down economy-wide model of India. This hybrid architecture stands upon an original dataset that reconciles national accounting, energy balance and energy price statistics. With this tool, we demonstrate that low-carbon scenarios can accommodate yearly economic growth of 5.8% from 2013 to 2050 i.e. perform close to if not slightly higher than our business-as-usual scenario, despite high investment costs. This result partly stems from improvement of the Indian trade balance via substantial reduction of large fossil fuel imports. Additionally, it is the consequence of significant shifts of sectoral activity and household consumption towards low-carbon products and services of higher value-added. These transitions would require policies to reconcile the conflicting interests of entrenched businesses in retreating sectors like coal and oil, and the emerging low-carbon sectors and technologies such as renewables, smart grids, electric vehicles, modern biomass energy, solar cooking, carbon capture and storage, etc. 24. Title: The dilemma of NGOs and participatory conservation Authors: Gani Aldashev; Elena Vallino. Abstract: Participatory conservation projects imply direct involvement of local communities in natural conservation efforts, aiming at combining economic development with protecting the environment. NGOs engaged in both development and conservation massively implement such projects. Numerous field studies document mixed results of such interventions and the persistence of conservation-development tradeoff: better conservation comes at the expense of lowering the livelihoods of community members because they h$%&()0345679BíÜʻʪ»Ê»™ŠyjVNA3hÌ"èhU<¬5OJQJ^Jh·uD5OJQJ^Jo(
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